{
  "mode": "shadow",
  "live": false,
  "synthetic": true,
  "claim": "Synthetic holdout. Paper results are not future returns.",
  "scenarios": [
    {
      "id": "clean-graduation",
      "note": "A curve that migrates. The handoff must flat the position.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 1,
      "flat": false,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0.0011,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation"
      ],
      "entered": true
    },
    {
      "id": "fast-rug",
      "note": "Creator sells through the curve. Must be flat on that print, not still open.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "stalled",
      "note": "Nobody arrived. No entry.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "thin-buyers"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "creator-heavy",
      "note": "Creator still holds the curve. Veto.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "creator-concentration"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "wash",
      "note": "One wallet is the crowd. Veto.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "wash-dominance"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "too-late",
      "note": "Curve is already priced. Veto.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "too-late"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "fee-spike",
      "note": "Priority fee above the cap. Veto.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "fee-spike"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "stale-quote",
      "note": "Quote older than the gate. Veto, including after an entry.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "stale-quote"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "dropped-tx",
      "note": "A failed send is not a fill and must not be retried into a double position.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "dropped-tx",
        "dropped-tx"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "duplicate-mint",
      "note": "The same create event delivered twice does not open two positions.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "duplicate-mint",
        "duplicate-mint"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "zero-liquidity",
      "note": "An empty curve is not a market.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "zero-liquidity"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "graduation-gap",
      "note": "Migration with a stale quote still flats rather than chasing.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "stale-quote"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "happy-then-dump",
      "note": "Eight green prints, then a creator dump. Holding through is a failure.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "kill-switch",
      "note": "The operator flag flats an open position before a time stop or a target can.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "churn-week",
      "note": "A rally and a creator dump, six times. Fees dominate. This is not an edge.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "loss-cap",
      "note": "After repeated rugs the daily loss cap must refuse the next clean curve.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "creator-dump",
        "pre-graduation",
        "launch-over"
      ],
      "entered": false
    },
    {
      "id": "max-positions",
      "note": "A fourth concurrent curve is refused.",
      "trades": 0,
      "open": 0,
      "flat": true,
      "pnl": 0,
      "fees": 0,
      "maxDd": 0,
      "lastExit": null,
      "rejects": [
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation",
        "pre-graduation"
      ],
      "entered": false
    }
  ],
  "population": {
    "seed": 9000,
    "launches": 2000,
    "trainScan": 144,
    "rule": "enter only after graduation, trail the runner, cut the fade",
    "costScenario": "base",
    "harness": "overlapped",
    "holdout": {
      "totalReturn": 25.6533,
      "maxDd": 0.2588,
      "trades": 448,
      "winRate": 0.3929,
      "expectancy": 577.6184,
      "profitFactor": 1.5566,
      "equity": 266533.03,
      "medianDayReturn": 4.758,
      "worstDayReturn": 2.2082,
      "daysObserved": 2
    },
    "confirm": {
      "totalReturn": 4.7216,
      "maxDd": 0.413,
      "trades": 452,
      "winRate": 0.3827,
      "expectancy": 109.461,
      "profitFactor": 1.5547,
      "equity": 57216.39,
      "medianDayReturn": 1.5267,
      "worstDayReturn": 0.7128,
      "daysObserved": 2
    },
    "baseline": {
      "totalReturn": -0.4511,
      "maxDd": 0.4511,
      "trades": 95,
      "winRate": 0.4947,
      "expectancy": -42.4815,
      "profitFactor": 0.0875,
      "equity": 5489.26,
      "medianDayReturn": -0.2591,
      "worstDayReturn": -0.2606,
      "daysObserved": 2
    },
    "serial": {
      "holdout": {
        "totalReturn": 15.5567,
        "maxDd": 0.2392,
        "trades": 441,
        "winRate": 0.4059,
        "expectancy": 377.2093,
        "profitFactor": 1.7608,
        "equity": 165566.96
      },
      "confirm": {
        "totalReturn": 44.1475,
        "maxDd": 0.2214,
        "trades": 408,
        "winRate": 0.4534,
        "expectancy": 1133.5657,
        "profitFactor": 2.1786,
        "equity": 451475.3
      }
    },
    "risk": {
      "maxPositions": 3,
      "dailyLossBps": 3400,
      "peakConcurrentPositions": 3,
      "dailyLossCapRejects": 0,
      "maxPositionRejects": 2,
      "stillOpenAtEnd": 0,
      "daysObserved": 2,
      "daysWithEntries": 2,
      "perDay": [
        {
          "day": 0,
          "startEquity": 10000,
          "endEquity": 83078.44,
          "return": 7.3078,
          "trades": 275,
          "capRejects": 0
        },
        {
          "day": 1,
          "startEquity": 83078.44,
          "endEquity": 266533.03,
          "return": 2.2082,
          "trades": 173,
          "capRejects": 0
        }
      ]
    },
    "costs": {
      "optimistic": {
        "costs": {
          "roundTripFeeBps": 200,
          "entrySlip": 0.004,
          "exitSlip": 0.004,
          "dumpSlip": 0.03,
          "fillLatencyBars": 0,
          "perFillBps": 0
        },
        "holdout": {
          "totalReturn": 802.0558,
          "maxDd": 0.0799,
          "trades": 448,
          "winRate": 0.3929,
          "expectancy": 17903.0319,
          "profitFactor": 3.7788,
          "equity": 8030558.27,
          "medianDayReturn": 37.6187,
          "worstDayReturn": 11.3823,
          "daysObserved": 2
        },
        "confirm": {
          "totalReturn": 216.4976,
          "maxDd": 0.0844,
          "trades": 452,
          "winRate": 0.3827,
          "expectancy": 4789.7705,
          "profitFactor": 4.6958,
          "equity": 2174976.27,
          "medianDayReturn": 14.3775,
          "worstDayReturn": 10.022,
          "daysObserved": 2
        },
        "serialHoldout": {
          "totalReturn": 646.9752,
          "maxDd": 0.0781,
          "trades": 441,
          "winRate": 0.4059,
          "expectancy": 14670.6403,
          "profitFactor": 5.0372,
          "equity": 6479752.39
        },
        "serialConfirm": {
          "totalReturn": 1188.3121,
          "maxDd": 0.0905,
          "trades": 408,
          "winRate": 0.4534,
          "expectancy": 29125.2958,
          "profitFactor": 6.2789,
          "equity": 11893120.68
        }
      },
      "base": {
        "costs": {
          "roundTripFeeBps": 250,
          "entrySlip": 0.01,
          "exitSlip": 0.01,
          "dumpSlip": 0.15,
          "fillLatencyBars": 1,
          "perFillBps": 5
        },
        "holdout": {
          "totalReturn": 25.6533,
          "maxDd": 0.2588,
          "trades": 448,
          "winRate": 0.3929,
          "expectancy": 577.6184,
          "profitFactor": 1.5566,
          "equity": 266533.03,
          "medianDayReturn": 4.758,
          "worstDayReturn": 2.2082,
          "daysObserved": 2
        },
        "confirm": {
          "totalReturn": 4.7216,
          "maxDd": 0.413,
          "trades": 452,
          "winRate": 0.3827,
          "expectancy": 109.461,
          "profitFactor": 1.5547,
          "equity": 57216.39,
          "medianDayReturn": 1.5267,
          "worstDayReturn": 0.7128,
          "daysObserved": 2
        },
        "serialHoldout": {
          "totalReturn": 15.5567,
          "maxDd": 0.2392,
          "trades": 441,
          "winRate": 0.4059,
          "expectancy": 377.2093,
          "profitFactor": 1.7608,
          "equity": 165566.96
        },
        "serialConfirm": {
          "totalReturn": 44.1475,
          "maxDd": 0.2214,
          "trades": 408,
          "winRate": 0.4534,
          "expectancy": 1133.5657,
          "profitFactor": 2.1786,
          "equity": 451475.3
        }
      },
      "stress": {
        "costs": {
          "roundTripFeeBps": 250,
          "entrySlip": 0.03,
          "exitSlip": 0.03,
          "dumpSlip": 0.3,
          "fillLatencyBars": 2,
          "perFillBps": 15
        },
        "holdout": {
          "totalReturn": -0.4525,
          "maxDd": 0.5138,
          "trades": 164,
          "winRate": 0.3598,
          "expectancy": -12.5938,
          "profitFactor": 0.904,
          "equity": 5474.61,
          "medianDayReturn": -0.26,
          "worstDayReturn": -0.2644,
          "daysObserved": 2
        },
        "confirm": {
          "totalReturn": -0.4603,
          "maxDd": 0.4943,
          "trades": 118,
          "winRate": 0.3898,
          "expectancy": -24.0112,
          "profitFactor": 0.7982,
          "equity": 5396.67,
          "medianDayReturn": -0.2654,
          "worstDayReturn": -0.267,
          "daysObserved": 2
        },
        "serialHoldout": {
          "totalReturn": -0.8185,
          "maxDd": 0.84,
          "trades": 441,
          "winRate": 0.4082,
          "expectancy": -12.4866,
          "profitFactor": 0.8081,
          "equity": 1814.67
        },
        "serialConfirm": {
          "totalReturn": -0.2492,
          "maxDd": 0.6302,
          "trades": 408,
          "winRate": 0.4534,
          "expectancy": 6.062,
          "profitFactor": 1.051,
          "equity": 7507.84
        }
      }
    },
    "mix": {
      "assumed": {
        "weights": [
          [
            "wash",
            0.08
          ],
          [
            "heavy",
            0.06
          ],
          [
            "thin",
            0.08
          ],
          [
            "gap",
            0.14
          ],
          [
            "telegraph",
            0.16
          ],
          [
            "graduate",
            0.22
          ],
          [
            "bleed",
            0.14
          ],
          [
            "chop",
            0.12
          ]
        ],
        "runnerRate": 0.4,
        "megaRate": 0.25,
        "fadeDumpBar": 2
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "note": "The seed split bounds sampling noise only. This bounds the assumption.",
        "breakEvenRunnerRate": {
          "rate": 0.2744,
          "bracketed": true,
          "classifyUnits": {
            "generatorRate": 0.2744,
            "rate": 0.2288,
            "low": 0.1919,
            "high": 0.2705,
            "resolved": 437
          }
        },
        "axes": [
          {
            "label": "rugMass",
            "defaultValue": 0.3,
            "points": [
              {
                "value": 0.2,
                "totalReturn": 21.9052,
                "medianDayReturn": 4.396,
                "trades": 506
              },
              {
                "value": 0.3,
                "totalReturn": 25.6533,
                "medianDayReturn": 4.758,
                "trades": 448
              },
              {
                "value": 0.45,
                "totalReturn": 13.6697,
                "medianDayReturn": 3.1532,
                "trades": 363
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "label": "runnerRate",
            "defaultValue": 0.4,
            "points": [
              {
                "value": 0.25,
                "totalReturn": -0.462,
                "medianDayReturn": -0.2665,
                "trades": 243
              },
              {
                "value": 0.4,
                "totalReturn": 25.6533,
                "medianDayReturn": 4.758,
                "trades": 448
              },
              {
                "value": 0.55,
                "totalReturn": 1554.5678,
                "medianDayReturn": 67.8055,
                "trades": 430
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "label": "megaRate",
            "defaultValue": 0.25,
            "points": [
              {
                "value": 0.1,
                "totalReturn": 4.4707,
                "medianDayReturn": 1.4869,
                "trades": 448
              },
              {
                "value": 0.25,
                "totalReturn": 25.6533,
                "medianDayReturn": 4.758,
                "trades": 448
              },
              {
                "value": 0.4,
                "totalReturn": 99.4316,
                "medianDayReturn": 12.6607,
                "trades": 448
              }
            ]
          },
          {
            "label": "fadeDumpBar",
            "defaultValue": 2,
            "points": [
              {
                "value": 1,
                "totalReturn": 43.3128,
                "medianDayReturn": 6.5769,
                "trades": 448
              },
              {
                "value": 2,
                "totalReturn": 25.6533,
                "medianDayReturn": 4.758,
                "trades": 448
              },
              {
                "value": 3,
                "totalReturn": 15.3052,
                "medianDayReturn": 3.4223,
                "trades": 448
              }
            ]
          }
        ]
      }
    },
    "stake": {
      "note": "Not a sizing study. Evidence that no fill price in the engine knows the order size.",
      "shippedMaxSizeBps": 850,
      "points": [
        {
          "maxSizeBps": 85,
          "optimistic": {
            "totalReturn": 1.0019,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.0082
          },
          "base": {
            "totalReturn": -0.0896,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.1144
          }
        },
        {
          "maxSizeBps": 170,
          "optimistic": {
            "totalReturn": 3.0267,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.0165
          },
          "base": {
            "totalReturn": 0.4398,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.0892
          }
        },
        {
          "maxSizeBps": 425,
          "optimistic": {
            "totalReturn": 29.4625,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.0407
          },
          "base": {
            "totalReturn": 3.7393,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.1424
          }
        },
        {
          "maxSizeBps": 850,
          "optimistic": {
            "totalReturn": 802.0558,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.0799
          },
          "base": {
            "totalReturn": 25.6533,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.2588
          }
        },
        {
          "maxSizeBps": 1700,
          "optimistic": {
            "totalReturn": 359856.7831,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.1538
          },
          "base": {
            "totalReturn": 486.7227,
            "trades": 448,
            "maxDd": 0.4533
          }
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "summary": {
    "count": 17,
    "entered": 1,
    "stillOpen": 1,
    "pnl": 0,
    "fees": 0,
    "edge": false
  }
}